Abstract
In 2010, the US Department of Commerce, commissioned by the White House Middle Class Task Force, recommended six indicators that define the middle class: having one’s own home, a car or two in the carport, taking a family vacation every year, sending kids to college, and having some retirement savings. We used the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) data to estimate the size of American middle class in selected years from 1988 to 2015 using three empirical variations of this definition and to test if there were upward or downward trends during these years. We found that the size of the American middle class was definitely on the decline between 1988 and 2015 for all three definitions. Multivariate analyses show that variations in total household annual expenditure and sociodemographic variables could not explain the decline. In fact, adjusting for these controls made the decline of the middle class over time more severe.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Unfortunately, the Pew report did not provide information on what approximate percentiles the $20,000 and $150,000 marks represented in 2008.
For liquid savings, we summed up non-retirement financial assets in checking and brokerage accounts (CKBKACTX), savings (SAVACCTX), securities such as bonds and stocks (SECESTX), and US savings bonds (USBNDX) before 2013. The CE changed its financial assets subcategories in 2013. As such, for 2013 and later, we summed up non-retirement financial assets in checking, savings, money market, or CDs (LIQUIDX), directly-held stocks, bonds, and mutual funds (STOCKX), and other financial assets (OTHASTX). While this was as close of a match as possible in our judgment, we unfortunately did not have a way of ensuring perfect data consistency due to these methodological changes so caution needs to be exercised when interpreting these data. A household was classified as having missing data on savings if it had no valid reporting in any of the categories based on which we constructed the savings variable. Our data show that less than 2% of our sample had missing data (e.g., invalid responses, do not know, or refuse to report). Considering the low percentage of missing, we excluded these households from our analysis.
An additional practical reason for using total expenditure instead of income is that the CE changed methodologies during the time represented in the data series we used. Through 2003, the CE income data relied on reported values, which might be biased due to missingness. Starting from 2004, missing results on income were imputed.
Adding “single father” and “single mother” categories may yield interesting results. However, given our particular variable specification, adding these categories will lead to a near-singular matrix situation in our regression analysis because “single father” is exactly expressible by “single male = 1”, “number of other adults = 0” and “number of children > 0” and “single mother” is exactly expressible by “single female = 1”, “number of other adults = 0” and “number of children > 0”.
References
Bhargava, V., & Lown, J. M. (2006). Preparedness for financial emergencies: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances. Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning,17(2), 17–26.
Boushey, H., & Hersh, A. (2012). The American middle class, income inequality, and the strength of our economy. Retrieved from https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2012/05/17/11628/the-american-middle-class-income-inequality-and-the-strength-of-our-economy/.
Burkhauser, R. V., Larrimore, J., & Simon, K. I. (2011). A “second opinion” on the economic health of the American middle class. Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/papers/w17164.pdf.
Chang, Y. R., Hanna, S., & Fan, J. X. (1997). Emergency fund levels: Is household behavior rational. Financial Counseling and Planning,8(1), 47–55.
Diemer, M. A., Mistry, R. S., Wadsworth, M. E., López, I., & Reimers, F. (2013). Best practices in conceptualizing and measuring social class in psychological research. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy,13(1), 77–113.
Duesenberry, J. S. (1949). Income, saving and the theory of consumer behaviour. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Duncan, O. D. (1961). A socioeconomic index for all occupations. In J. J. Reiss (Ed.), Occupations and social status (Vol. 1, pp. 109–138). New York: Free Press of Glencoe.
Fan, J. X., & Abdel-Ghany, M. (2004). Patterns of spending behavior and the relative position in the income distribution: Some empirical evidence. Journal of Family and Economic Issues,25(2), 163–178.
Fan, J. X., & Zan, H. (2019). The “model minority” myth: Asian American middle class before, during, and after the Great Recession. Singapore Economic Review,64(1), 23–39.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2019a). Homeownership rate for the United States. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2019b). Real Gross Domestic Product per capita. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA.
Frank, R. (2013). Falling behind: How rising inequality harms the middle class. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Friedman, M. (1957). The permanent income hypothesis. A theory of the consumption function (pp. 20–37). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Gilbert, D. (2014). The American class structure in an age of growing inequality. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE.
Haskins, R., Isaacs, J. B., & Sawhill, I. V. (2008). Getting ahead or losing ground: Economic mobility in America. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/research/getting-ahead-or-losing-ground-economic-mobility-in-america/.
Jones, J. M. (2005). American's vacation habits. Retrieved from https://news.gallup.com/poll/20542/americans-vacation-habits.aspx.
Kamakura, W. A. (2014). What happened to the American ‘Middle Class’? Class and consumption in America. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2378522.
Kochihar, R., & Fry, R. (2015). America’s ‘middle’ holds its ground after the Great Recession [Press release]. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/02/04/americas-middle-holds-its-ground-after-the-great-recession/.
Kochihar, R., & Morin, R. (2014). Despite recovery, fewer Americans identify as middle class [Press release]. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/01/27/despite-recovery-fewer-americans-identify-as-middle-class/.
Merriam-Webster. (2016). Middle class. Retrieved from https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/middle%20class.
Morin, R., & Motel, S. (2012). A third of Americans now say they are in the lower classes [Press release]. Retrieved from https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/09/10/a-third-of-americans-now-say-they-are-in-the-lower-classes/.
Nam, C. B., & Boyd, M. (2004). Occupational status in 2000: Over a century of census-based measurement. Population Research and Policy Review,23(4), 327–358.
Newman, K. S. (2006). Chutes and ladders: Navigating the low-wage labor market. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Newman, K. S., & Chen, V. T. (2007). The missing class: Portraits of the near poor in America. Boston: Beacon Press.
Pew Research Center. (2008). Inside the middle class: Bad times hit the good life. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2012/08/pew-social-trends-lost-decade-of-the-middle-class.pdf.
Pew Research Center. (2012). Fewer, poorer, gloomier: The lost decade of the middle class. Retrieved from https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2012/08/pew-social-trends-lost-decade-of-the-middle-class.pdf.
Pew Research Center. (2015). The American middle class is losing ground: No longer the majority and falling behind financially. Retrieved from https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/12/09/the-american-middle-class-is-losing-ground/.
Pew Research Center. (2016). America's shrinking middle class: A close look at changes within metropolitan areas. Retrieved from https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2016/05/Middle-Class-Metro-Areas-FINAL.pdf.
Reyes-Morales, S. E. (2003). Characteristics of complete and intermittent responders in the Consumer Expenditure Quarterly Interview Survey. Retrieved from https://www.bls.gov/cex/anthology/csxanth4.pdf.
SAS Institute Inc. SAS Software, Version 9.4. Cary, NC: SAS Institute.
StataCorp LP. Stata software, Version 13.1. College Station, TX: StataCorp.
Sullivan, T. A., Warren, E., & Westbrook, J. L. (2001). The Fragile Middle Class: Americans in Debt: Yale University Press.
The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (2016). Views of the national economy are clouded by personal finance and employment concerns. Retrieved from https://www.apnorc.org/PDFs/EconViews/economy%20report%20draft_v5_DTP%20Formatted_new%20image.pdf.
The National Bureau of Economic Research. (2015). US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/cycles.html.
The White House Task Force on the Middle Class. (2010). Annual Report of the White House Task Force on the Middle Class. Retrieved from https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/100226-annual-report-middle-class.pdf.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics. (1988–2015). Consumer Expenditure Survey. Retrieved from: https://www.bls.gov/cex/.
US Bureau of the Census. (2019). Household size by vehicles available 2011–2015 American Community Survey 5-year estimates. Retrieved from https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_14_5YR_B08201&prodType=table
US Department of Commerce. (2010). Middle Class in America. Retrieved from https://2010-2014.commerce.gov/sites/default/files/documents/migrated/Middle%20Class%20Report.pdf
Acknowledgements
We thank Dr. Geoffrey Paulin (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and Dr. Jason Murasko (University of Houston – Clear Lake) for their valuable guidance to our data construction and analyses. We also thank three anonymous referees for their insightful comments.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Fan, J.X., Zan, H. The Decline of the American Middle Class: Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys 1988–2015. J Fam Econ Iss 41, 187–199 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10834-019-09651-1
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10834-019-09651-1